Market Resolutions

ProbiFi markets are designed to be resolved based on real-world outcomes through a secure and verifiable process. Our long-term goal is to integrate the UMA Optimistic Oracle to enable decentralized, permissionless, and economically secure resolution of markets. This integration would allow anyone to propose, challenge, and finalize market outcomes using on-chain incentives and dispute mechanisms.

At present, we are actively reaching out to the UMA team to initiate discussions about integrating their Optimistic Oracle with Kaspa-compatible EVM chains such as Igra and Kasplex. Until that integration is confirmed and deployed, ProbiFi will use an interim, trust-minimized resolution process based on multisig governance, described in detail below.

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Planned UMA Resolution Flow (Post-Integration)

Once UMA is integrated into Kaspa Layer 2 EVM environments, market resolution on ProbiFi will follow this workflow:

1. Outcome Proposal

When an event’s outcome becomes clear (e.g., after a sports result is published or election results are finalized), any participant may submit a proposed outcome to the UMA Optimistic Oracle. This requires a bond denominated in USDC.e, typically around $750. This bond acts as a deterrent against malicious proposals and is forfeited if the proposal is later proven incorrect or challenged successfully.

2. Verification and Challenge Period

Following the proposal, a challenge window (usually around 2 hours) opens. During this time, other users can dispute the outcome if they believe it is inaccurate or submitted prematurely. If a dispute is filed, the matter is escalated to UMA’s decentralized dispute resolution system, where UMA token holders vote to determine the correct outcome.

3. Resolution and Settlement

If no dispute is raised, or if the proposer’s outcome is upheld after a dispute, the result is finalized. All winning shares are settled at a value of $1.00 each. Losing shares become worthless. The proposer receives their bond back along with a resolution reward.

This structure provides trustless, economically secure resolution that aligns with the decentralized ethos of both UMA and Kaspa.