Market Pricing
The prices you see on ProbiFi reflect the market’s consensus probability for an event. They’re based on the midpoint between the best bid and best ask orders in the market — unless the spread is too wide, in which case we display the last executed trade.
When a Market Goes Live
At launch, a ProbiFi market starts with:
Zero shares
No preset odds
An open order book waiting for user activity
Traders, acting as market makers, place limit orders to buy YES or NO shares at their preferred prices.
Example:
You place a bid of $0.42 for YES
Someone else offers $0.58 for NO
Combined, they total $1.00, so the trade executes
One YES share and one NO share are minted and distributed accordingly
That $0.42 YES / $0.58 NO split becomes the initial market price — reflecting a 42% probability the event will happen.
How Prices Move Over Time
As more users enter the market, prices continue to evolve based on real-time supply and demand.
If the spread between bids and asks is less than $0.08, the displayed price is the midpoint
If the spread exceeds $0.08, the last matched trade sets the price
For example:
Highest YES bid: $0.45
Lowest NO ask: $0.53
Displayed probability = 49% (midpoint of $0.45 and $0.53)
This setup ensures the prices always reflect active trading sentiment, without needing a central odds-setter.
Prices = Odds
Every price on ProbiFi doubles as a real-time probability — backed by money and belief.
In the example above:
A price of $0.49 for YES implies a 49% chance that the market believes the event will happen
If you’re more confident than that, you can buy YES shares and profit if the event occurs
If you disagree, sell YES or buy NO
Keep in mind: prices may not be immediately available at the displayed rate. You’ll always trade at the lowest ask or highest bid, depending on your order type.
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