What is ProbiFi?
The ProbiFi documentation is actively evolving to reflect ongoing technical developments, integration milestones, and platform updates. As the project progresses, certain sections may change to incorporate the latest information. We encourage readers to revisit regularly to stay up to date with the most accurate and complete details.
ProbiFi is Kaspa’s first oracle-based prediction market, enabling you to stay ahead of the curve and monetize your insight by trading on the outcomes of real-world events — from politics and crypto, to sports and culture.
Backed by UMA's Optimistic Oracle and secured by Kaspa's high-speed, PoW Layer 1, ProbiFi provides a platform where markets are free, open, and driven by truth. Prediction markets consistently outperform pundits and polls by aggregating public sentiment, expert knowledge, and real-time data into a single probabilistic value — the market price. In essence, markets know.
Quick Overview
On ProbiFi, you can buy and sell shares representing the outcome of future events (e.g., “Will Ethereum flip Bitcoin by market cap by 2026?”).
Shares are priced between 0.00 and 1.00 USDC, representing Yes or No on a given question.
Each market pair is fully collateralized, meaning $1.00 in stablecoins (or KAS-wrapped equivalent) backs every pair of opposing outcomes.
Shares are created when buyers and sellers agree on opposing outcomes — their bids must total exactly $1.00 for a new share pair to be minted.
When the outcome is known and the market resolves, only the correct shares pay out $1.00, while the losing side becomes worthless.
Unlike sportsbooks, you’re never betting against a house. You’re trading directly against other users, and:
You can exit early to take profits or cut losses
You won’t be limited or banned for being profitable
Understanding Prices
Prices = Probabilities.
Share prices on ProbiFi directly represent the market’s current estimation of an event’s likelihood. If “YES” shares for “Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?” are trading at $0.34, the market sees a 34% chance of that outcome occurring.
These prices aren’t set by any central authority — they emerge organically through decentralized market dynamics, just like on a DEX.
How to Make Money on ProbiFi
Let’s say you think Trump’s chances are actually higher than 34%. You could buy “YES” shares at $0.34 each. If he wins, each one will be redeemable for $1.00, giving you a $0.66 profit per share.
On the other hand, if you think he’ll lose, you could buy “NO” shares at $0.66 — and those would be worth $1.00 if he does in fact lose.
Since these are liquid markets, you’re not locked into your position. You can sell your shares at any time to lock in profit (or cut losses) based on updated news or sentiment.
Why ProbiFi Markets Are So Accurate
Prediction markets beat polls and pundits — consistently. Why?
Because each participant in a ProbiFi market is financially incentivized to be right. Traders incorporate everything from breaking news and expert forecasts to insider understanding and contrarian opinions — and the resulting market price reflects that collective knowledge.
As more informed users enter the market, prices quickly adjust, improving accuracy. That makes ProbiFi the most dynamic, unbiased, and real-time barometer of future outcomes in the Kaspa ecosystem.
If you have deep insight or expertise, ProbiFi is your chance to turn knowledge into profit — and help the world see clearer odds.
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